Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,486$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,060.3}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,060.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,334$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(35.1 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(9.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,014.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 68.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,014.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,719$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $76,306$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,659.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 54.5)}}\) (asimptote \(112,659.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,169$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(50.5 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,153.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,153.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,813$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $190,137$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(3.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{456,698.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 61.9)}}\) (asimptote \(456,698.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,240$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(307 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,511.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(25,511.1\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $98,473$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $34,381$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{157,843.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 85.7)}}\) (asimptote \(157,843.6\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $346$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(28.8 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{380.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(380.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,170$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,148$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(43.7 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,290.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 74.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,290.2\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $142$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(8.75 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,014.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 72.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,014.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,667$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,930$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(523 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,767.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 67.5)}}\) (asimptote \(34,767.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $509$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(40.4 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{673.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(673.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,288$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,879$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(598 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,795.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,795.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(35.8 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{395.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(395.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,284$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $719$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(193 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{682.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 21.6)}}\) (asimptote \(682.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $19$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(20.8\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $155$ on 2020-05-13
